Our Story ... 

Collecting data on commodity demand in a way that allows cross country comparisons is difficult.  Governments rarely measure demand concentrating, instead, on production or employment.  Even here they often report value-added rather than sales, yet companies large and small usually want to know the size of the market and its future strength.

I built the original databases while developing the World Sea Trade Service at DRI/McGraw-Hill (now Global Insight).  After leaving there, I redeveloped these, using improved methods while at another consulting firm.  These databases were later sold to WEFA (now Global Insight).   Over the past six years since that time, I have redeveloped the database using new, improved, models forecasting techniques.   The latest available data is included along with value-added data for key European, North American, and Asian countries supplied by Oxford Economic Forecasting along with their macroeconomic forecasts.   I maintain in cooperation with Oxford Economic Forecasting who provides both macroeconomic forecasts and more current historical data on industrial activity for key countries than is available from the United Nations.

You could buy data on macroeconomic developments, but GDP growth tells little about the likely strength of the market for specific commodities.  You could hire high cost management consulting companies to analyze the “market”, yet often they buy their data from third party providers, such as QuERi-International and then repackage the data with their own brand of “high-level strategy” at six figure prices. You could  purchase market research reports filled with an eclectic mix of out of date quantitative estimates rarely linked to current economic conditions. You could also buy the raw economic data from the UN, World Bank, or ILO and then spend countless hours trying to turn it into demand for paper bags. Why not just spend $100 to get a Single Table that covers demand for the products your company or organization is interested in --  300  commodities for  72 countries -- and get a useful estimate of market potential tied closely to a well known macroeconomic baseline forecast of the global economy.

Why Market Demand?

Market demand is a derived measure of market potential.  But to get to this point you need to collect a large amount of data describing the economy fully.  Patterns of production, private consumption flows, business fixed investments, government spending patterns, and trade patterns need to be full defined.  Definitions across countries must be standardized.  Available government data must be cleaned up and models developed to bring it forward even to the current year and then on into the forecast period.

Once the economic demography is fully defined and available then estimating market demand is relatively easy.  It is derived from an adjusted input-output model framework that measures indirect demand.  Expenditures on furniture and household equipment can be, for example, subdivided into the types of products purchased in the approximately amounts consumed.  In a similar way production of automobiles drives demand for iron and steel or plastic materials as well as banking  and transportation services. 

Quantitative Economic Research International (QuERI)  maintains one of the largest global trade and industrial activity databases  of any private or public organization.  This set of economic data differs from standard issue government data as it uses a standardized definitions (International Standard Industrial Classification, Revision 2 (ISIC)) across all 72 countries and 64 product groups. It is filled in completely and includes forecasts. It was developed for sizing world markets and testing new theories of economic growth and development.  Unlike any data available from government organizations, these databases offer companies, governments, and non-governmental organizations a useful source for quantitative information on the world economy.  Global economic demographic information meets the need for timely and accurate information on which to base business decisions and government policies.  

Developed by a leading international economist, perfected over more than twenty-five years of active research into cleaning and standardizing government data, these cross-country and multi-industry/commodity series use a uniform approach allowing easy comparison.  

All forecasts are linked to short and medium-term economic forecasts developed by a leading private forecasting organizations (Oxford Economic Forecasting). 

Consulting Services

Specializing in quantitative research, econometric model development,  and analysis of the international market.    Expert, fact-based, analysis of issues from  international trade protection to globalization.