Economic Research, Global Forecasting

Economic Research and Global Forecasting

QuERI International helps businesses and government
quantify the world through use of sophisticated and integrated econometric modeling and forecasting. Based on over forty years of economic forecasting experience, QuERI's proprietary models cover 72 countries and over 400 products and commodities at the NAICS 6 level, making them amongst the most comprehensive in the world. QuERI believes in the power of its models and their ability to help both industry and governments strategize and plan for the future by providing targeted, market and product specific commodity forecasts at a fraction of the cost of our competition. With a variety of products and services available, the right level of forecast is available for you. We Quantify the World so that you can make solid decisions about the future. No industry, country or client is too small or too large.

For more information and sample data

The Economist Cafe -- Analysis, Forecasts, and Data on the Global Economy

Best guesses about the future of the world economy....

The impact on the global economy needs to be in context of the previous expectation of growth -- a negative three percent real GDP growth for 2019-20 for the world is almost a six percent shift from the pre-Covid 2020 forecast. The damage of the pandemic could have been worse and would have been if the governments, mainly in the advanced countries, had not stepped in and created a massive flood of replacement funding for small businesses and individuals.
Our assumption about a recovery is based on a belief that the virus will be kept under control either through government actions, the vaccine, or simply the governments allowing letting business restart without control. The economic shock to the service sector is allowed to continue significantly reduced in 2021, but for the most part beyond the initial shocks to the system introduced in 2020, the long term forecast reflects internal linkages in the model.

Why the QuERI Integrated Global Model is a better model measuring the impact of the Covid19 selective shutdowns than more traditional, even linked, global macro models?
1. QuERI model's are sector specific, thus the degree of shutdown is sector specific and country specific with the effect felt through the interindustry linkages.
2. Patterns of industrial, trade, and employment are key drivers rather than broad based macroeconomic single equation model.
3. A Stage of Economic Development economic model allows poor countries to migrate both their rate of growth and their demand patterns to countries further up the development ladder.

A short summary of the latest QuERI Integrated Global Model World Forecast of Real GDP Growth -- 1990 through 2030

To get the latest forecast for the post-Covid period, download our newest study covering the period 1990 through 2030 for the world economy.

impact_of_covid19_on_the_world_economy__1_.pdf
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