International Trade - Exports and Imports
QuERI data for international trade is derived from United Nations Commodity Trade data. For most countries actual data through 2010 is available, for some countries estimates are developed based on model forecasts. Data is derived from the HS6 level of commodity detail (more than 6000 detailed traded commodity categories) aggregated into 310 6 digit NAICS categories consistent with the market demand data available using the detailed IO models. Topline totals from government sources available through 2011-12 are used to adjust detailed data to reflect the latest trends in global trade.
Exports reflect the available outbound trade of a country. Export forecasts are based on industrial structure, world market demand for the commodity, prices, and exchange rates. Equations for exports of advanced countries, emerging market economies, and developing economies are developed independently. Model derived estimates of exports (forecast period only) are combined into export market shares for each country. This allows faster growing exporters to capture a larger share of the potential market for the products. Country specific exports are based on export shares multiplied by total imports of all 72 countries.
Imports are tied closely macro and microeconomic demand factors, relative wages, prices, and the wealth distributions within the country. Like exports equations are derived for three separate groups of countries based on their general stage of economic development – advanced, emerging, and
developing. Total imports for each commodity are combined into a total imports. This total imports ismultiplied by export shares to produce estimates of country exports for each commodity.